Politics: Pundit Audit 2012

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Politics Pundit Audit 2012 Here's what I got wrong in the most exciting election year since 2008. By David Weigel Posted Wednesday, Dec 26, 2012, at 07:12 PM ET Every December, when the news cycles have spun themselves out, I actively try to humiliate myself. I page back through the articles and blog posts I wrote (196 pages of them this time) and record my worst blown predictions and lazy punditry. Never have I had to do this in a presidential election year, when the gut-checks and guesstimates grow like sweet corn in the field. The year started out harmless. On Jan. 2, I filed a story about Rick Santorum's likely win in the nonbinding precinct caucuses and wrote that he would likely win them, then lose "New Hampshire, or Nevada, or South Carolina, [and] the nomination." That was conventional wisdom, sure, but I stuck to it and predicted a Romney primary win even before Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and then Santorum again took turns humbling him. On Jan. 3, I noticed that turnout of Republicans in those caucuses was actually down from 2008, and argued that "Republicans aren't so excited about 2012." And they weren't. Not as much as the high-paid pollsters for the Romney campaign thought. (I hope they're spending those bonuses wisely.) I'm disinclined to believe whatever most people currently believe. That helps out in an election year. Every bend in this year's primary season or general election inaugurated a media panic—Gingrich can be the nominee! Romney will close the gender gap! The first presidential debate changed everything! I didn't fall for too much of this, and frequently enough ... To continue reading, click here. Join the Fray: our reader discussion forum What did you think of this article? POST A MESSAGE | READ MESSAGES Also In Slate Pundit Audit 2012 Baiters Gonna Bait Why Fiscal Cliff Is Such a Powerful Metaphor	Advertisement
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