By Jim Newell Math Proves That Obama Will Have a Major Scandal Soon Whether he knows it or not, President Obama is about to fuck something up miserably and drown his administration in years of investigations. There is no avoiding it; it will happen, perhaps even by the close of Memorial Day weekend. Why are we so sure? Because a little thing called "math" told us. Political scientist Brendan Nyhan has released a new study, "Where Are the Obama Scandals?", that asks why "the current administration has not yet suffered a major scandal, which I define as a widespread elite perception of wrongdoing." Really? "Not yet suffered a major scandal"? Perhaps Brendan Nyhan was on vacation when Barack Obama ordered dijon mustard for his hamburger or personally demanded the removal of an American flag from Ground Zero, so we'll forgive him for the shaky premise. Assuming we go along with Nyhan's criteria, though, math almost guarantees something terrible happening soon: Obama has been extremely fortunate: My research on presidential scandals shows that few presidents avoid scandal for as long as he has. In the 1977-2008 period, the longest that a president has gone without having a scandal featured in a front-page Washington Post article is 34 months – the period between when President Bush took office in January 2001 and the Valerie Plame scandal in October 2003. Obama has already made it almost as long despite the lack of a comparable event to the September 11 terrorist attacks. Why? Probably because he hasn't had the time to coordinate a major scandal yet. Or maybe he's just not as shady as other presidents? These explanations wrongly assume that a president's behavior and agency actually have anything to do with the emergence of a "major scandal." What the president does is largely unimportant: Obama should be highly vulnerable to scandal given his standing with Republicans. My research identifies presidential approval among opposition party identifiers as a key risk factor. The reason is that discontent among the opposition's base creates demand for negative news about the president, encouraging opposition legislators and members of the news media to promote allegations of misconduct. In sum: "Political news" is a 100% fictional construct, and math will force an intern to give the president an Oval Office blowjob. [Image via Getty] Share this:

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May 27, 2011: Sarah Palin's potential presidential candidacy, The Hangover 2, and in praise of unknown actors.

Today: May 27, 2011 Here Comes Sarah How a Palin candidacy could help and hurt Mitt Romney. By John Dickerson READ FULL STORY | More News and Politics Who's Afraid of Roger Ailes? Rolling Stone and New York magazine publish dueling takes on Fox News Channel Chairman Roger Ailes. By Jack Shafer READ FULL STORY | More News and Politics In Praise of Unknown Actors Jessica Chastain's graceful turn in The Tree of Life and other amazing performances by newcomers and nobodies. By Jessica Winter READ FULL STORY | More Arts Krauthammer's Attack on Obama's Israel Stance Is So Wrong How Do You Make Someone Mentally Fit To Stand Trial? Help! My Cousin Is Experimenting With Autoerotic Asphyxiation. Having a Real Hangover Is More Fun Than Watching The Hangover 2 Advertisement Why Are Certain Scientific "Discoveries" Made Over and Over Again?   Briefing Barack Obama said Guinness tastes better in Ireland. Does it? Palinisms: Did she really say that? News & Politics Have voters already put the brakes on the Tea Party's congressional revolution? Rep. Joe Walsh: He'll say anything, which is why he's interviewed everywhere. Arts 4th and Forever reviewed: Can more drama be wrung out of high school football? Dynasty: Revisiting the primetime soap's surprisingly arty debut season. Life An economic history of the last three years, interpreted through Slate internships. My love-hate relationship with the youth of today. Business & Tech Japanese economy: an innovative way to soften the blow when crises hit. Facebook ambassadors: Countries should send diplomats to the social-media giant. Science Male lactation: Can a 33-year-old guy learn to breast-feed? Tornado in Missouri: Why more and more natural disasters are plaguing us, and what we can do about it. Podcasts & Video The Political Gabfest for May 27th, 2011. Phoebe Prince case: Flannery Mullins talks to Slate.

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