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Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Politics: Romney Takes Iowa, but Santorum Really Won

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Politics
Romney Takes Iowa, but Santorum Really Won
Can Santorum derail the front-runner by replicating his amazing Iowa surge in New Hampshire?
By John Dickerson
Posted Wednesday, Jan 04, 2012, at 06:12 AM ET

The Iowa Republican caucus was a tie and a blowout. The finish was so close that statistics majors at Iowa State will probably see it as a question on the final. Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum essentially tied at 25 percent, with Ron Paul a breath behind at 21 percent.

But when you measure the key question in the Republican campaign: Do you vote for the electable candidate Romney or the candidate who speaks to your heart—Santorum and Paul—it was a 46-25 trouncing for the heart over the head.  According to entrance polls, of those voters who wanted a true conservative, Santorum got 36 percent and Romney got just 1 percent. (That is not a misprint.)

Though the top two candidates tied, Santorum was the big winner. Weeks ago, the smart people thought that tonight he'd be addressing an empty ballroom of lonely, sad balloons. Instead, the crowd at his victory party is so thick I've practically got supporters on my lap as I type this. Santorum is now the only Flavor of the Week candidate to actually win anything, which makes him a genuine threat to Romney, at least for the moment.

In 2008 Romney won 25 percent of the Iowa caucus vote. This time he got the same, despite the fact that the issues favored him more. Voters said improving the economy was the issue they cared the most about. That was the centerpiece of his pitch—that his business experience gave him unique ...

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