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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Sports Nut: No Basketball, No Problem

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Sports Nut
No Basketball, No Problem
Why a lost NBA season wouldn't be a disaster for local economies.
By Neil deMause
Posted Wednesday, Oct 05, 2011, at 04:30 PM ET

After another fruitless round of talks between the players and owners, it looks like the start of the NBA season—if not the whole thing—will soon be wiped out. It's not only hoops fans who are anxious at the prospect of a lost season. By all accounts, cities with NBA franchises have also been cringing in terror. With the start of the season a month away, we've already seen predictions of a "devastating" impact on Charlotte, N.C., businesses, a $55 million loss to the city of Indianapolis, and certain disaster for sports bars in Portland, Ore.

This kind of reporting is a staple of sports work stoppages, and it's easy to see why. Idle turnstiles and shuttered souvenir stands are obvious indicators of lost economic activity, and an easy visual symbol of the impact of the sports world's regular strikes and lockouts. The problem with these stories is that there's no evidence to support any of their claims. The lost city revenues, the devastation for local businesses—none of it ever happens.

"There is no way the NBA lockout will have any significant economic consequences," says the University of Alberta's Brad Humphreys, an economist who has studied the effects of sports work stoppages. Humphreys' most in-depth investigation came in 2001, when he and Dennis Coates of the University of Maryland-Baltimore County set out to determine the effects of the lockout that wiped out the first half of the 1998-99 NBA season. Since ...

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