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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Poker is a game of skill, not luck

Poker is a game of skill, not luck

King nine offsuit

Randal Heeb convinced a New York City judge that poker isn't a game of luck, using a 120-page report full of analysis and charts.

Judge Weinstein, relying on the research of Randal Heeb - an economist, statistician and poker player - found that while luck determines what cards a player gets, skill plays the bigger role in a player's ultimate success. With such charts as "Win-Rate Comparison: King Nine Offsuit,' the 91-year-old judge delved into the complexities of the argument more thoroughly than any past court has. John Pappas was pleased with the result, and impressed with the methodology.

The king nine offsuit chart he refers to is above. Simulated earnings for better players are shown on the left in blue, and earnings for not so good players are shown on the right. Although both groups are likely to lose with the hand, skill appears to decrease expected losses.

Check out the full report here [pdf].




Who pays for healthcare, 1960 to 2010

Health care spending

Josh Cothran looked at who's paid for healthcare over the past five decades, with an animated Marimekko chart.

In 1960, almost 100% of the spending on prescription drugs came out of the consumer's pocket; by 2010, out-of-pocket spending was down to 20%. Over the past 50 years, there have been major shifts in the way hospital care, physician services, long-term care, prescription drugs, and other services and products are paid for. This interactive graphic uses data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to show national spending trends from 1960 to 2010 for health care by payer.

In case you're unfamiliar with the layout, there are two visual dimensions to the Marimekko. On the vertical is percentage for the main categories: hospital care, physicians and clinical services, etc. On the horizontal is a breakdown of the main categories: private insurance, Medicare, etc. The animation brings time as a third dimension for which the overall size of the chart is constant, so pay attention to the changing relative percentages.




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