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Friday, March 2, 2012

Moneybox: It?s Halftime in America ? and We?re Winning

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Moneybox
It's Halftime in America … and We're Winning
The overlooked data that reveal the economy is bouncing back.
By Matthew Yglesias
Posted Friday, Mar 02, 2012, at 10:11 PM ET

The American economy's been in bad shape for a long time. Normally after a recession you get a quick bounce-back recovery—real long-term economic growth is hard, but putting a bunch of unemployed workers back to work is, relatively speaking, easy. But instead of a catch-up recovery we spent 2010 and most of 2011 suffering from sluggish growth. Even before suffering though the deepest recession in postwar history, we had just ambled through the weakest period of growth on record. In retrospect, the boom economy of the late 1990s seemed less like the dawning of a New Economy and more like a brief bubble-driven vacation from decades of despair.

For the past 18 months, everyone's been hatching pet ideas about what ails us. Technology is advancing too slowly—or maybe it's too quickly. (My entry into the genre will be published next week.) All of that, however, obscures that the short-term picture is finally looking bright. Everyone knows the past couple of months' worth of jobs data have been pretty good, but two relatively obscure data points released this week confirm that growth will be the hot new trend this spring.

Let's start with theory. There are so many numbers out there that it's easy to get lost in the fog. The fundamental case for growth in 2012 remains what I laid out last December. Normally, the Federal Reserve cures recessions with low interest rates. Mathematically speaking, to cure a very deep recession you need ...

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