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Monday, July 23, 2012

Politics: How Obama Defies Gravity

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Politics
How Obama Defies Gravity
The battleground fight in Nevada is a window into how the president can win—despite a battered economy.
By John Dickerson
Posted Friday, Jul 20, 2012, at 05:59 PM ET

LAS VEGAS—Nevada should be a state Barack Obama has no chance of winning. In an election about the state of the economy, no state has been harder hit. The unemployment rate is 11.6 percent, the highest in the nation. Sixty-one percent of the homes are worth less than the mortgage on them, also the highest in the nation. Las Vegas is in the middle of the desert, but everyone there is underwater. 

Still, Barack Obama has a shot in Nevada. He won Nevada by 12 points in 2008 and an average of polls right now shows the president ahead by 5 points (and perhaps more if you believe pollsters underestimate the Hispanic vote). Analysts in both parties say the state is the president's to lose. Nevada is the most acute example of the key political dynamic in this election: The weight of a bad economy should sink the incumbent, but a combination of fortunate demographics and superior organization in the battleground states might rescue him in the end.

The economy in Nevada isn't just bad, it's broken. "Growth was heroin to a junkie in this state," says Billy Vassiliadis, the Democratic wise man and advertising and marketing executive whose firm has helped sell Las Vegas to the world. At the height of the boom in 2006, construction represented 12 percent of the workforce. "The joke is that in the boom years we were the only state that had construction workers building homes for construction ...

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