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Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Politics: What If He Wins?

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Politics
What If He Wins?
Imagining a Ron Paul victory in Iowa.
By David Weigel
Posted Monday, Dec 19, 2011, at 11:34 PM ET

Jan. 3, 2012. The ballroom of the Des Moines hotel fills faster than anyone expected. Iowa Republicans are still caucusing, but fans of Ron Paul have driven in from Omaha, Rockford, Minneapolis, Topeka, and Pittsburgh, their cars festooned with "Legalize the Constitution" stickers. They hit the cash bars early.

At 8 p.m., the networks release the first scraps from "entrance polls." Lots of first-time caucusers. Lots and lots of anti-Washington sentiment. Lots and lots of Tea Partiers. The ballroom crowd boos when some cable-news Muppet explains that "some people are saying that a Ron Paul win would mark the end of the Iowa caucuses." Suddenly they realize why the anchor is saying that: He's trying to explain why Paul is leading.

At 9 p.m., they call it: "Ron Paul is the winner of the 2012 Iowa caucuses." The ballroom fills up with confetti and boozy cheers. The 76-year-old candidate takes the stage, joined by the junior senator from Kentucky and the rest of his brood. Those hair-gelled media nabobs will have to report on a new Republican front-runner now.

This could happen. Two weeks before the Iowa caucuses, the Republican wheel of random candidate surges has finally click-clack-clicked over to Ron Paul. A Fox News columnist says it. A CNN columnist says it. The heartless RealClearPolitics polling average says it, even if it's goosed by an odd, one-day Insider Advantage survey. The gamblers of InTrade, who don't often move unless they've got a preponderance ...

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